The Wine industry reset is here, fueled by a generational shift to younger consumers redefining consumption patterns
Silicon Valley Bank, a division of First Citizens Bank, today released its 2025 State of the US Wine Industry Report. Widely regarded as the leading source of market trends in the premium wine sector, SVB’s annual report provides an analysis of current market conditions and forecasts for the year ahead.
The report uncovered several positive market indicators, despite an overall decline in global wine demand in the last year. The premium wine segment once again demonstrated resilience with small, single-digit sales declines overall, and the top quartile of wineries producing average sales growth of 22%. With total wine consumption decreasing by volume, wine supply is backed up throughout the production and sales channels. While challenging for industry players, the market environment is poised to create some of the most accessible bottle pricing of the last 30 years, a golden era for wine consumers in search of value.
“The wine industry is undergoing a significant change, marking the first demand-based correction in three decades,” said Rob McMillan, Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division founder and author of the report. “We have been predicting a generational shift for many years, and the 2025 report data solidifies the wine industry is now living that reality. Different parts of the industry will heal at different times, but we can expect a continued downturn for some time before we reach flat growth.
No- and low-alcohol wine, white wine and prosecco experienced positive growth, with white wine outpacing red wine sales for the first time in many years. According to the report, varietal shifts from red to white could be a forward indicator that a rotation to younger consumers is underway. More broadly, the youngest consumers are increasingly abstaining from wine altogether or choosing alternatives, all trends expected to persist into 2025 and beyond.
“Consumers are not changing their minds about wine. Older, 60+ year-old consumers who historically index higher for wine purchases are sunsetting, replaced by younger consumers who index lower for wine and prefer other drink categories,” said McMillan. “To restore the balance between demand and supply, growing consumption share with consumers in the 30-45 segment is critical. The industry can shorten the recovery by evolving marketing and promotion strategies to meet that consumer at their value points.”
The 2025 SVB report examines the latest consumption, pricing and sales data as well as the most promising wine industry marketing strategies. It provides an in-depth analysis of the key trends and data impacting the US wine industry:
- Total wine category sales will end 2024 with negative volume growth, between minus 3% and minus 1%.
- The weighted average of wineries produced a 3.4% revenue decline, with the top quartile seeing an average of 22% revenue growth, and the bottom quartile seeing a 16% revenue decline.
- Wholesale-heavy wineries fared worse than direct-to-consumer-focused brands.
- Tasting room visitation is predicted to be slightly lower in 2025 compared to 2024.
- California- and Washington-planted acreage exceed demand while Oregon is closer to being in balance with demand.
- 42% of winery survey respondents said they will take a small price increase in 2025, which may prove difficult in an over-supplied market with prevalent discounting.
Read the full 2025 State of the Wine Industry report here: www.svb.com/trends-insights/reports/wine-report.